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JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • EPS of $5.07 beat S&P Global consensus ($4.65), while revenue was below S&P consensus (actual $42.01B vs $44.10B) in Q1 2025; firm-reported net revenue was $45.31B (managed $46.01B) and net income $14.64B . EPS/revenue consensus figures from S&P Global; see Estimates Context section for details.*
  • Markets delivered an exceptionally strong quarter with $9.7B revenue and record Equities; CIB net revenue rose 12% YoY to $19.7B on higher principal transactions and fees .
  • Management raised firm-wide NII outlook to ~$94.5B and maintained NII ex-Markets at ~$90B; adjusted expense outlook remains ~$95B; card NCO guidance ~3.6% unchanged .
  • Elevated macro uncertainty (tariffs/geopolitics) drove a $973M net reserve build (weighted-average unemployment embedded 5.8%); consumer credit is normalizing (card losses seasoning) but performance remains broadly in line with expectations .
  • Capital return accelerated: $7.1B net buybacks and the common dividend was increased 12% to $1.40; CET1 remained strong at 15.4% (Std.), SLR 6.0% .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Equities and strong Markets: Markets revenue $9.7B (+21% YoY), Equities $3.8B (+48% YoY), Fixed Income $5.8B (+8% YoY) .
  • CIB revival: Investment banking fees $2.25B with strength in debt underwriting and advisory; total CIB net income $6.94B (+5% YoY) .
  • Strategic capital return: $7.1B of net repurchases; dividend increased to $1.40, supported by elevated capital levels and liquidity (“$1.5T of cash and marketable securities”) .

Management quotes:

  • “Markets revenue rose to $9.7 billion, an exceptionally strong quarter with record revenue in Equities.” — Jamie Dimon .
  • “We continue to believe it is prudent to maintain excess capital and ample liquidity… CET1 ratio remained very strong at 15.4%, and we have an extraordinary amount of liquidity, with $1.5 trillion of cash and marketable securities.” — Jamie Dimon .

What Went Wrong

  • Reserve build and credit normalization: Provision $3.31B with $973M net reserve build, largely due to macro scenario weights; card net charge-offs rose $275M YoY on seasoning of recent vintages .
  • Deposit margin compression: NII ex-Markets down 2% YoY; deposit margins pressured in CCB and Payments, partially offset by higher wholesale balances .
  • CIB outlook caution: Management flagged “wait-and-see” among corporate clients amid tariff/geopolitical uncertainty, potentially tempering IB pipeline conversion near term .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Net Revenue (Reported, $MM)$42,654 $42,768 $45,310
Total Net Revenue (Managed, $MM)$43,315 $43,738 $46,014
Net Interest Income (Reported, $MM)$23,405 $23,350 $23,273
Noninterest Revenue (Reported, $MM)$19,249 $19,418 $22,037
Diluted EPS ($)$4.37 $4.81 $5.07
Net Income ($MM)$12,898 $14,005 $14,643
ROE (%)16% 17% 18%
ROTCE (%)19% 21% 21%
Net Yield on Interest-Earning Assets (%)2.58 2.61 2.58
Overhead Ratio (%)53 53 52

Segment performance (Managed basis):

SegmentQ3 2024 Net Revenue ($MM)Q4 2024 Net Revenue ($MM)Q1 2025 Net Revenue ($MM)Q3 2024 Net Income ($MM)Q4 2024 Net Income ($MM)Q1 2025 Net Income ($MM)
Consumer & Community Banking$17,791 $18,362 $18,313 $4,046 $4,516 $4,425
Commercial & Investment Bank$17,015 $17,598 $19,666 $5,691 $6,636 $6,942
Asset & Wealth Management$5,439 $5,778 $5,731 $1,351 $1,517 $1,583
Corporate$3,070 $2,000 $2,304 $1,810 $1,336 $1,693

Key KPIs:

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Active Mobile Customers (000s)56,985 57,821 59,036
Card Sales Volume excl. Commercial ($B)$316.6 $335.1 $310.6
IB Fees ($MM)$2,267 $2,479 $2,248
AUM ($T)$3.9 $4.0 $4.113
CET1 (Std. Ratio, %)15.3% 15.7% 15.4%
SLR (%)6.0% 6.1% 6.0%
Dividend per Share ($)$1.25 $1.25 $1.40

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
NII ex-MarketsFY 2025~$90B (“continue to expect”) ~$90B Maintained
Firm-wide NIIFY 2025Lower prior outlook (unspecified) ~$94.5B Raised
Adjusted ExpenseFY 2025~$95B ~$95B Maintained
Card Net Charge-off RateFY 2025~3.6% ~3.6% Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 & Q4)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Macro/tariffs/geopoliticsQ3: “conditions treacherous” with geopolitical risks; Q4: management flagged inflation and dangerous geopolitics Elevated uncertainty, client “wait-and-see”; front-loading spend ahead of expected tariff impacts Rising uncertainty
Markets performanceQ3: Markets up 8%; Q4: Markets up 21% YoY $9.7B; record Equities, strong Rates/Commodities Improving momentum
NII outlookLimited explicit outlook in Q3/Q4 releases NII ex-Markets ~$90B (maintained); firm-wide NII raised to ~$94.5B Stable to higher
Regulation/reformQ3: Basel/GSIB rules under review; Q4: balance growth/safety “Deep recognition of flaws” and support for reforms across SLR/LCR/CCAR/GSIB Policy focus building
Consumer health/creditQ3/Q4: card growth; normalization; deposit margin compression Consumers financially healthy; card losses seasoning in line; no distress in lower-income segment Normalization, broadly healthy
Capital returnQ3/Q4: $1.25 dividend; buybacks ongoing Dividend to $1.40; $7.1B buybacks Increasing
IB pipelineQ3/Q4: Fees strong; Payments resilient Caution on pipeline conversion amid uncertainty Near-term caution

Management Commentary

  • Prepared remarks highlighted strength and caution: “We reported strong underlying business and financial results… Markets revenue rose to $9.7 billion… In CCB, opening 500,000 net new checking accounts; AWM had healthy AUM net inflows of $90 billion.” — Jamie Dimon .
  • On reserves and macro: “We increased probability weightings associated with downside scenarios… weighted average unemployment embedded in our allowance is 5.8%, driving the $973 million increase.” — Jeremy Barnum .
  • On investment and capital: “Investments in banks, branches, technology, AI will continue regardless of the environment… we like having excess capital to serve clients through storms.” — Jamie Dimon .

Q&A Highlights

  • Macro/clients: Corporate clients are focused on supply-chain optimization and tariff responses; cautious pipeline conversion; consumers display front-loaded spending ahead of price increases .
  • Reserves: Increase driven by scenario weighting, not actual performance deterioration; consumer reserve build $441M; wholesale $549M .
  • NII trajectory: Lower front-end rates a headwind, but offsets from balances and beta; NII ex-Markets outlook unchanged at ~$90B .
  • Capital deployment: Continued investment agenda; preference for holding excess capital given turbulence, while maintaining buybacks flexibility .
  • Treasury market functioning/regulatory reform: Advocacy for holistic reforms (SLR, LCR, CCAR, GSIB) to improve market intermediation; Fed would step in during stress as before .

Estimates Context

Consensus vs actual (S&P Global):

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)3.99*4.04*4.64*
Actual EPS ($)4.37*4.81*5.07*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)41,376.39*41,564.59*44,102.06*
Actual Revenue ($MM)39,543.00*40,137.00*42,005.00*
  • EPS beat all three quarters; revenue below consensus all three quarters (S&P Global). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Strong Markets/Equities performance and raised firm-wide NII outlook point to upward revisions for CIB revenue/NII lines .
  • Elevated reserve build and continued card loss normalization may temper near-term EPS lift despite topline strengths .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Resilient earnings power with strong Markets ($9.7B) and CIB momentum; Equities leadership is a near-term support amid volatility .
  • Core banking margins face deposit compression; offsets from higher wholesale balances, card revolving balances, and AWM fee growth .
  • Credit normalization is orderly; reserve build driven by scenario weighting, not performance deterioration; watch card loss trajectory as macro evolves .
  • Capital return accelerating (dividend hike, buybacks) with fortress capital (CET1 15.4%, SLR 6.0%); provides downside cushion and optionality .
  • Guidance: Raised firm-wide NII to ~$94.5B; maintained NII ex-Markets ~$90B and expense ~$95B; supports mid-teens ROE amid uncertainty .
  • Near-term trading implication: EPS beats vs consensus but top-line prints vs S&P revenue consensus remain mixed; the narrative catalyst is Markets strength vs macro caution—expect estimate dispersion across segments.*
  • Medium-term thesis: structural advantages (scale, diversified earnings, technology investment) underpin superior ROTCE and capital flexibility through cycles .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*